Thailand Casino Market Could Top Singapore, Analysts Say

Thailand Casino Market Could Top Singapore, Analysts Say

When Thailand's casino industry matures, it may surpass Singapore in yearly gross gaming revenue (GGR), positioning the nation to overtake Singapore as the world's third-largest gaming jurisdiction.

According to a recent analysis by Citi analysts George Choi, Preenapa Detchsri, and Timothy Chau, Thailand might achieve an annual gross domestic product of $9.1 billion once its casino industry is fully ramped up. With it, Singapore would move up to third place on the global list, behind only Macau and Las Vegas. Although integrated resorts have not yet received official approval in Thailand, lawmakers are working to move related legislation along as quickly as possible.

"Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat recently reiterated the Thai government’s intention to table a revised draft law … to the cabinet by end-2024. When the council of state approved the bill … the race for licences in Thailand will quickly commence,” according to Citi,

The $9.1 billion GGR estimate is predicated on Thailand authorizing the opening of at least five gaming licenses, including two in Bangkok, the country's capital, and one each in Pattaya, Phuket, and Chiang Mai.

Thailand and Singapore It's not a comparison of apples and apples

Given that the Southeast Asian country now lacks authorized gaming establishments, it would be an amazing accomplishment if Thailand were to eventually achieve or surpass the Citi projection and take third place among worldwide casino markets.

But one may argue that the parallels to Singapore are overblown. There are only two integrated resorts in the city-state: Resorts World Sentosa by Genting and Marina Bay Sands by Las Vegas Sands. This won't change very soon, as those operators have duopoly protection there for the next thirty years.

Officials in Singapore have indicated that they have no plans to allow the installation of any more gaming properties anytime soon, and the country is happy with only two. Therefore, it is realistic to assume that Thailand would quickly overtake Singapore in terms of GGR based just on having more casinos if it were to begin its casino gaming venture with four or five venues.

In 2023, Singapore recorded its highest GGR since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, coming in at $5.11 billion. Additionally, two of the world's most lucrative integrated resorts are Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa.

Thailand's Attractive Casino Industry

Thailand is a desirable market for operators for a number of reasons, as it is difficult to find fresh, substantial growth outlets in the global gaming sector. These include the nation's position as a tourism hotspot in Southeast Asia and new laws meant to attract the biggest names in gaming.

The first casino hotels in Thailand might open in five or six years, according to analysts, who regard Thailand's dedication to efficiency as similar to Singapore's two decades ago. Additionally, the anticipated gaming tax rate of 17% is thought to be advantageous for operators' bottom lines.

“In light of the lower gaming tax rate at 17 percent and the lower operating expenses — mostly wages and utilities — versus Singapore, we believe earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin could reach 40 percent to 50 percent, which implies Thailand could see industry EBITDA of approximately $4.1 billion (annually),” added the Citi analysts.